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Spotting Risk in Community Bank Acquisition Targets

Posted by Wendell Brock on Fri, Oct 09, 2009

In the beginning of 2009, the media was pushing the idea that this would be the year for the community bank. Many smaller banks had not weighted down their balance sheets with subprime loans, asset-backed securities and complex derivatives. In theory, they had the stability to pick up loan customers that had been turned away by larger institutions. Columbus Business First published an article entitled, "Larger competitors' retrenchment may give smaller banks opening." And Business Week said, "As big banks struggle, community banks are stepping in to offer loans and lines of credit to small business customers."

Getting in to the banking industry during a power shift from big banks to small ones would appear to be an attractive opportunity for bank executives and community leaders who wish to be bank investors. But the predictions of a few publications don't sufficiently address the risk involved in buying a bank. Bank investors need to have some framework for separating the good targets from the bad ones.

Characteristics of at-risk community banks

In a speech made last July, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen summarized the characteristics of at-risk community banks. She cited:

  • High concentrations of construction loans for speculative housing projects
  • Concentrations of land acquisition and development loans
  • Poor appraisal systems
  • Weak risk-monitoring systems

Looking ahead, Yellen also identified "income-producing office, warehouse, and retail commercial property" as an area of potential risk. She cited rising vacancies and poor rent dynamics, which are putting negative pressures on property values. These value declines can be particularly problematic for maturing loans that need to be refinanced. Community banks that maintain large portfolios of commercial property loans should be proactively managing these risks. Bank acquisition groups should verify that target banks are updating property appraisals, recognizing impairments early, and negotiating work-outs with borrowers when appropriate.

Tim Coffey, Research Analyst for FIG Partners, LLC, agrees that commercial real estate is the next area of risk for banks. In an interview, Coffey said,

I think the residential portion of this correction has been dealt with and recognized by bankers and market participants alike. The next shoe to drop is going to be commercial real estate. I don't think there is really any kind of argument about that. How messy it's going to be compared to the residential part remains to be seen.

Coffey's comment was included in a report by The Wall Street Transcript that also quoted commentary from other banking analysts. The consensus among them was that some community banks are still facing potentially disastrous problems ahead.

Separating the good acquisition targets from the bad ones, then, requires careful analysis of the balance sheet, loan portfolio and the bank's current risk management practices. If the bank isn't managing risk proactively, there could be unknown problems brewing within the loan portfolio. Buying a bank with known problem assets is a manageable challenge-but buying a bank with unknown problem assets is something else entirely.

Topics: Community Bank, mergers and Aquisistions, bank acquisition, Loans, organizers, Bank Mergers, bank investors, Troubled Banks, De Novo Banks, mergers

FDIC Reports Aggregate Quarterly Loss for Banking Industry

Posted by Wendell Brock on Mon, Mar 02, 2009

The FDIC’s most recent Quarterly Banking Profile (QBP) confirms the continuation of problems for the banking industry, as several key metrics showed further deterioration in the fourth quarter. These are some highlights:

•    Quarterly earnings declined, swinging industry profitability to a net loss.
•    Loan loss provisions, net charge-offs, defaults and noncurrent loan balances increased.
•    Aggregate outstanding loans and leases decreased.
•    Total deposits increased.
•    Average net interest margin generally improved for larger institutions, but declined for community banks that fund most of their assets with interest-bearing deposits.

Degradation of earnings performance

For the first time since the fourth quarter of 1990, insured commercial banks and savings institutions reported a net quarterly loss. The aggregate loss, which exceeded $26 million, was fueled by a combination of loan loss provisions, trading losses and asset write-downs. Roughly half of the aggregate loss was driven by results at only four banks. But, 32 percent of all insured institutions reported a net loss. The industry’s quarterly return on assets (ROA) was a negative 0.77 percent, the worst quarterly ROA performance since 1987.  

Full-year 2008 net income was slightly more than $16 billion, vs. $100 billion in the year earlier. The full-year ROA was a meager 0.12 percent. These figures were somewhat inflated due to the accounting entries related to failures and mergers; excluding those impacts, the industry would’ve reported a loss for the year.

Loan loss provisions, charge-offs and defaults


Credit quality continued to be problematic. The industry’s loan loss provisions for the quarter were in excess of $69 billion, or more than half of aggregate net operating revenue. Net loan and lease charge-offs were nearly $38 billion, which is more than double the amount recorded in the year-earlier period. Charge-offs for real estate loans, both construction and development loans and residential mortgages, increased more than $10 billion on a combined basis.

At year-end, the industry was strapped with $230.7 billion in noncurrent loans. This compares to $186.6 billion at the end of the third quarter. The sharp increase does not bode well for a near-term lending or housing recovery, particularly since nearly 70 percent of that increase was related to mortgage loans—residential mortgages, C&I loans, home equity loans and other loans secured by real estate.

Trading losses, asset write-downs, declining equity capital


Trading losses in the fourth quarter were large at $9.2 billion, but down from last year’s level of $11.2 billion. Charges associated with goodwill impairments and factors jumped more than $4 billion from last year, to $15.8 billion.

The disappearance of $39.4 billion in goodwill, along with a reduction in other comprehensive income, led to another consecutive reduction in total equity capital.

Total regulatory capital, however, notched an increase of 2.2 percent. At year-end, 97.6 percent of insured banks matched or beat the highest regulator capital standards.

Restructuring reduces loans outstanding


Net loans and leases outstanding slipped by 1.7 percent. The decline was largely attributable to portfolio restructuring by several large institutions.

Mergers and failures shrink the industry


During the fourth quarter, the number of insured institutions shrank by 79. There were 12 failures in the quarter and 15 new charters. The rest of the decline was related to merger activity and FDIC assistance transactions. For the year, 25 banks failed and 98 institutions were chartered.  

As of December 31, the FDIC’s bad bank list contained 252 insured institutions, representing total assets of $159 billion. 


Topics: FDIC, Banking industry, Bank Mergers, Quarterly Banking Profile, equity capital, charge-offs, Loss, earning performance, mergers

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